Why This Post
Yesterday, I was asked how I estimate the number of hours it could take to design and develop learning activities for a training (workplace performance improvement) project.
My answer? “It depends.”
That said, my colleagues and I do have to provide clients with an estimated delivery date for projects, and so I fall back on a few helpful resources.
A Few Resources for You
Dr. Karl Kapp (on Twitter, @kkapp) wrote an article for ASTD in 2003, then revised it in 2009, along with co-author Robyn A. Defelice. This article is worth your study and application when you estimate time for your projects. For me, it is an invaluable resource, so I hope it helps you:
Time to Develop One Hour of Training – Dr. Karl Kapp and Robyn A. Defelice
http://www.astd.org/LC/2009/0809_kapp.htm
David Gaw also refers to this ASTD resource and adds a few thoughts of his own at his blog:
http://www.changeordered.com/2009/12/how-long-to-develop-an-hour-of-training.html
And, here is Dr. Kapp’s original 2003 article:
http://www.astd.org/LC/2003/0703_kapp.htm
“Time to Create Course” Thread on the Articulate Forums
Earlier this year, we had a lively discussion on the estimating topic in the Articulate Forums. From the link below, you’ll find three forum pages of posts, including a long one from me. The nice thing is several forum members contributed their thoughts from real-world experience. I know you’ll find helpful advice from this source:
http://www.articulate.com/forums/general-discussion/15680-time-create-course.html
Keep Track of Your Project Hours
One e-learning consultant in another state told me his “secret”. When he gets a brand new client, he does not work on a fixed, project fee basis, he always works on an hourly basis. When a new client is new to e-learning, he finds he’s also a coach as well as an ID and a developer, and the coaching takes up more of his time. He reports his time to the client weekly (or twice a month), and he said the reports help “reign in” the client when needed due to the client always changing things after a design was approved.
I open up a simple Excel file and track hours that way. I include meetings, conference calls, and time spent communicating through e-mail messages. I know not everyone likes ADDIE, but each element is a good header for me to use to track time on a project for Analysis, Design, Development, Implementation, and Evaluation.
How do you estimate? Please share with us by writing a Comment below.
Jenise,
Thank you for the article and for the links. They will prove invaluable to many like me who have to estimate scope and time, and like you, my answer is “It depends.” Often, there are way too many variables and all the balls seem to be in the air at the same time…:)
The resource links are extremely useful too.
What struck a chord with me is this: “One e-learning consultant in another state told me his “secret”. When he gets a brand new client, he does not work on a fixed, project fee basis, he always works on an hourly basis. When a new client is new to e-learning, he finds he’s also a coach as well as an ID and a developer, and the coaching takes up more of his time.”
This is a very recent experience I had when I was in the USA. I will share this experience in my blog and cite this post.
Best,
Sahana
Hello, Sahana:
Thank you for posting a comment. You are a member of my PLN, and if you ever want to come back and share more regarding estimates, please do!
I can’t argue with the names you’ve got there, but here’s my take anyways. To come up with absolute estimates for a project especially if it’s large and you’re any more than two people, is prone to huge errors.
This is where I find the research interesting. As you can see from the table, the number of hours to produce elearning vary considerably from project to project. It took 340 hours to develop this 10 min simulation (http://bit.ly/ccMxHO).
So it’s almost misleading to say it’ll take x hours to complete a certain piece of work. I like to use the following approach towards estimation and planning:
* Break down the project into activities using Cathy Moore’s action mapping approach. If necessary, break down activities into smaller chunks of work.
* Estimate ‘size’ (not development) of each activity using planning poker.
* Hide estimates and lay activities out into 2 week iterations. Complete a few runs of this to determine your velocity. Number of points you can finish in an iteration.
* Use your measure of velocity to extrapolate when you’ll finish the project.
I can explain this further, but all I’ll say is that there’s sufficient research from Mike Cohn (Agile Estimation and Planning) that suggests absolute estimates to be flawed. So I strongly recommend relative estimation where you separate the notions of time and size.
Sumeet
Hey, Sumeet!
What a privilege to have you visit and Comment on this blog post. I really enjoy your tweets on Twitter.
Thank you for sharing your wisdom and experience. I admire Cathy Moore’s Action Mapping, and this is the first time I have heard of Planning Poker ( http://planningpoker.com/ ). I’ll take a look at that tool.
Again, I appreciate your visit, and welcome you to come back any time.
Hi Jenise,
Great topic! This is probably the toughest question I get from my boss and other executives at work. It can be very difficult to come close to an estimation before you have any kind of design in place. I think your suggestion of keeping track of time spent on projects is a great place to start. I often find myself thinking back to past projects but it’s always difficult to remember exactly how much time I spent on the project. I’m kicking myself for not keeping a spreadsheet like yours to track time.
Also great comments by Sumeet. I’m a big fan of the action mapping approach. Once you have all of the activities “action mapped” it’s much easier to estimate time. The tough part is giving any kind of estimation before you have mapped out activities.
Thanks for bringing up what I am sure will be a long standing question in the eLearning/Instructional Design field.
Hi, Joe, thanks for visiting, and you’re welcome.
In a way, it’s very comforting to know we all struggle. However, I am glad we do have proven ways to provide close-to-reality estimates for clients.
My spreadsheets have been valuable tools to help me work through estimates with my clients. They truly are partners and collaborators in this process.
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Hi Patricia,
Thank you for visiting my blog, and for the link-back.
I’ll also enjoy the links to the articles you listed in your post.
Estimating is an “art” more than a science. I wish you the best!